WCA forecasts major fall in cement demand

The World Cement Association (WCA) forecasts a significant decline in global cement and clinker demand by 2050, citing shifting construction trends, decarbonisation, and alternative materials.

In its white paper, Long-Term Forecast for Cement and Clinker Demand, the association predicts global cement use will drop from 4.2 billion tonnes per year in 2020 to 3.0 billion tonnes by 2050. Clinker demand, a major contributor to CO₂ emissions, is expected to decline even more steeply, falling from 2.8 billion tonnes in 2024 to less than 1.9 billion tonnes by 2050.

The WCA highlights regional variations in demand. China, currently the largest consumer, is experiencing a sharp decline as infrastructure activity slows and population growth plateaus. Consumption is expected to fall from 2.4 billion tonnes in 2020 to 0.9 billion tonnes by 2050. Developed regions, such as Western Europe and North America, will remain broadly stable, while emerging markets in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa could see growth due to population increases and development.

Sustainable practices are reshaping the sector. These include the adoption of supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) and clinker-free alternatives, improved design efficiency, and waste reduction. Ian Riley, WCA chief executive officer, notes: "The growing emphasis on reducing carbon emissions is encouraging the adoption of alternative materials, optimised designs, and strategies to minimise waste."

The report also examines the impact on construction practices. Riley suggests the shift signals a move towards more sustainable designs and materials, such as mass timber and geopolymers. "Lower cement and clinker demand directly contribute to reducing the carbon footprint of construction projects, aligning with global sustainability goals," he says.

The WCA calls on industry stakeholders to use the report's findings to plan for the transition to a decarbonised future. It emphasises collaboration across the sector to adopt innovative solutions and align investments with sustainability goals.